Impact assessment Climate Package KGG
What is the core of this study and why was it conducted?
This study evaluates the climate package presented by the Dutch Ministry of Climate and Green Growth (KGG) as part of the 'Voorjaarsnota' 2025. The motivation arose because the Climate and Energy Outlook 2024 (KEV 2024) from the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) predicted only 45-52% emission reduction by 2030, while the Netherlands is legally obligated to achieve 55% reduction compared to 1990 levels. The ministry therefore introduced an additional climate package expected to deliver 10-12 megatons of extra emission reduction. Greenpeace and Milieudefensie asked Kalavasta to investigate this package through an independent assessment of all proposed measures.
What main conclusion does Kalavasta draw about the effectiveness of the climate package?
Kalavasta concludes that the climate package is much less effective than indicated by the ministry. Based on the measures presented by the ministry, only 4 megatons of emission reduction can be expected, instead of 10-12 megatons as set out by the ministry. According to this assessment, the climate package does not bring the Dutch climate target within reach. The study shows that many measures have less effect than proposed, or that essential preconditions for success are missing.