Impact of local heating and cooling choices

Kosten voor netverzwaring en back-up voorzieningen

Why was this study into the system-wide impact of local heating and cooling choices conducted?

The Dutch energy transition requires a system-wide approach in which the transformation of heating and cooling in the built environment plays a central role. Natural gas is being phased out and cooling demand is increasing, while other sectors are simultaneously being electrified and renewable electricity production is being scaled up. This creates a complex interplay between local heating and cooling choices and effects at the national system level that has until now been insufficiently understood. Currently, heating and cooling strategies and electricity planning are largely developing in parallel, without systematic coordination on network impact, flexibility needs, or security of supply. The PBL's Startanalyse maps the costs of various heating strategies at neighbourhood level for the transition to a gas-free built environment, but the costs for electricity infrastructure and back-up capacity are not fully included. This study, commissioned by RVO, TKI Urban Energy and TKI Systeemintegratie, therefore aims to map the system-wide consequences of local heating and cooling choices for the national electricity infrastructure and back-up provisions, based on different weather scenarios.

How was the integrated analysis methodology designed?

The methodology combines five instruments into an integrated analysis of the system impact of local heating and cooling choices. The PBL's Startanalyse serves as the starting point for the built environment, describing per neighbourhood the heat demand, electricity demand, and local heating costs for different heating strategies. The rest of the energy system is filled in using the Netbeheer Nederland scenarios edition 2025 in the Energy Transition Model, with the built environment replaced by the outcomes of the Startanalyse. These reference scenarios serve as input for two calculation tools. The Infrastructure Transition Model regionalises hourly supply and demand profiles, links them to a network topology based on public asset data, and calculates peak loads per connection and transformer using PyPSA. The back-up tool determines the required controllable capacity based on residual demand curves, after optimal deployment of storage. The calculations are carried out for three weather years, so that extreme conditions such as dunkelflaute and heatwaves are taken into account.

How do savings on grid and back-up costs compare to local heating cost increases when switching strategies?

When switching from an air-to-water heat pump to an alternative heating and cooling strategy, the associated national savings in grid and back-up costs do not outweigh the higher local heating costs in any of the variants calculated in this study. Per individual neighbourhood, however, the outcome of this trade-off may differ. In neighbourhoods where the cost difference between the air-to-water heat pump and an alternative heating strategy is small, the savings on grid and back-up costs could tip the balance. For most neighbourhoods, however, this is not the case. The magnitude of the savings differs considerably per strategy: a switch to a ground-source heat pump or a low-temperature heating network yields relatively modest savings per residence per year from a system perspective, while a medium-temperature heating network with central generation combined with peak boilers yields substantially larger savings per residence per year. It should be noted that for heating networks with central generation, air conditioning is needed for cooling, whereas an air-to-water heat pump can often also provide cooling, and these additional cooling costs are not included in the Startanalyse.

What role should grid and back-up costs play in local decision-making?

When weighing local heating and cooling choices, both national system costs, end-user costs and non-financial aspects such as spatial integration and noise play a role. Currently, however, grid and back-up costs are not yet fully included in this assessment framework. Although grid and back-up costs are generally not decisive, they can become so in neighbourhoods where the additional local heating costs are limited. The study therefore recommends that grid and back-up costs deserve a place in the broader assessment framework for local decision-making. The key figures from this study offer an accessible way to indicatively account for these costs. It is also important to recognise that developments elsewhere in the energy system, such as the management of solar PV peaks and the charging behaviour of electric vehicles, are at least as decisive for total grid loads as the heating and cooling choices in the built environment.