Nibud households and climate policy

Why are Nibud households analysed?

The affordability and fair distribution of costs and benefits of the energy transition are among the biggest challenges for the coming years. Insight into how climate policy financially impacts different households is needed to assess the fairness of cost and benefit distribution, enabling policymakers to identify unintended consequences and maintain societal support through transparent debate. This analysis of Nibud households provides such insight by examining how Dutch climate policy (as of Voorjaarsnota 2025) affects the financial position of representative households within the Netherlands. Nibud made data available from one hundred households that are also used for purchasing power calculations. These households were selected based on household composition, main source of income, housing and car access and usage, with each household representing 1/100 of Dutch households.

What is studied and why is this relevant?

Using the Policy Transition Model (BTM) energy-related expenses were calculated relative to Nibud household income levels for 2023 and 2030. This study's added value lies in its accurate representation across diverse Dutch households and its integrated approach, uniquely examining both energy-related expenses for housing and car usage together. For the analysis, households are assumed to use gas heating and gasoline cars (if owned), since these remain the predominant technologies in the near future. As a result, a comprehensive analysis is provided of how climate policy and market developments may impact representative households in the Netherlands, with particular focus on financially vulnerable groups.

How do energy-related expenses develop towards 2030 for Nibud Households?

The 2030 reference scenario shows diverging trends compared to 2023. Energy bills for housing decrease due to lower expected energy prices, though grid tariffs represent a greater and dominant portion of the bill. Costs for car usage increase significantly through higher taxes and levies. When considered together, energy-related expenses remain relatively stable for most households compared to 2023. However, there are significant differences for what this means for different groups. Most notably, low-income households dependent on a car face a problematic situation as their combined costs reach levels similar to those of 2023, when there was a substantial energy poverty crisis. This group lacks sufficient financial capacity to absorb potential price increases, particularly in a 2030 high-price scenario, raising the risk of financial problems comparable to the recent energy poverty crisis and requiring proactive policy measures to prevent them from falling behind.