Industry in Climate Neutral Energy Scenarios (II3050 Edition 2) (2023)

Commissioned by the Dutch grid operators and supported by VNO-NCW and the Ministery of Economic Affairs and Climate, Kalavasta elaborated the II3050 results for the Dutch industry by means of detailed interviews on transition strategies with the companies themselves, translated into a several scenarios in the Carbon Transition Model.

Industry in Climate Neutral Infrastructure Scenarios II3050

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What was the motivation behind the II3050 Edition 2 Industry?

The Integrale Infrastructuur Verkenning 2030-2050 (II3050) is a project commissioned by Netbeheer Nederland, Gasunie and Tennet. The motivation behind the project is for the Dutch grid operators to develop an understanding of the needs for the future electricity, natural or green gas, hydrogen, heat, and carbon dioxide infrastructure in the Netherlands. Kalavasta, together with Berenschot, was commissioned in 2020 to carry out the first edition, which included the development of four scenarios that represent different options for a future Dutch energy system. In this 2023 update and new edition of the project, one motivation was to improve the understanding of the Dutch heavy industry’s future demand for energy and feedstock to improve the accuracy of the II3050 projections. This allows the grid operators to have the right infrastructure in the right place and at the right time and limits bottlenecks and delays in the energy transition in the Netherlands.

How were the industry demand scenarios developed?

Creating the insights of the industry edition required extensive discussions to be carried out with the major industrial actors in the Netherlands. Interviews were carried out with the 14 largest industrial sites, which in 2019 consumed approximately 98% of oil (or petroleum products), 58% of natural gas, 27% of electricity and 96% of coal in the Dutch industry. In total, more than 120 interviews and plenary sessions were conducted with the companies, during which they were asked about their strategies regarding the transition towards carbon neutrality. The strategies were also differentiated according to the four II3050 scenarios. The strategies of the companies are highly confidential. In addition to speaking to the large companies also meetings were held with the six industrial clusters and companies and institutes active in the molecules that will constitute future feedstock (biogenic, synthetic and circular molecules).

What about the outcomes?

The CTM scenarios that were created will remain confidential and only available to the project team. But the II3050 ETM scenarios 2030-2050 will be publicly available, with aggregated data on each industry sector level. The strategies of the companies were sensitive to the scenario chosen. In all the scenarios, the Dutch industry showed rapid change, specially in scope 1 emissions, due to measures taken to limit greenhouse gas emissions. The scenarios showed that an increase in the demand for electricity and for molecules such as H2 and CO2 could drastically increase towards the future as the industry carries out its transition.

How will the outcomes of the study be put into use?

The aggregated results of the project will be used to further plan the transition by the grid operators, the Dutch government and by the clusters and companies themselves. The industry can use the results to reiterate strategies, where the aggregated outcomes show goals not being met or other physical limits of resource availabilities being exceeded. The aggregated industry data and the CTM is also used for the benefit of the Outlook of the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate and the Interdepartemental Policy Research Group (IBO) for Climate Policies 2030 of various Ministries.