Model integration (ATM, CTM and ETM) (2022)

By integrating the CTM, the ETM, and the ATM, we can provide insights into the relationships between the energy system, industry, agriculture, food and nature.

What are the CTM, ATM and ETM?

The Agri-food-nature Transition Model (ATM) is being developed by Kalavasta. The ATM enables users to systemically, integrally and transparently explore the future of the Dutch agriculture, food and nature system. The Carbon Transition Model (CTM) is also developed by Kalavasta. The CTM enables users to explore and discuss ways to increase carbon circularity and reduce emissions within the energy intensive industry. The Energy Transition Model (ETM) is already operational and is managed, maintained and further developed by Quintel Intelligence. The ETM enables users to explore different transition scenarios of the entire energy system. All three models are open source and open data.

Why do we need to integrate these models?

These models provide valuable insights into the transition paths of the energy system, energy intensive industry as well as agriculture, food, and nature. However, because these are separate models, cross-sectoral interrelationships remain underexposed. For instance, biomass can be used in all three models but has limited availability. In the ETM, it can be used for energy, in the CTM as feedstock and in the ATM for food or feed. If, for example, biomass is used as feedstock in industry it can reduce availability for food or feed. But if more people adopt plant-based diets, more biomass could in turn become available as industrial feedstock. If these models are integrated, such interrelationships can be taken into account transparently and integrally when exploring and discussing transition paths.

Where do things stand with the model integration?

The development of the CTM and ATM is divided in three phases, after which they will become publicly accessible. Both models are currently in phase two. The ETM is already operational and publicly accessible. Integration of the models will commence by coupling the CTM with the ETM during phase two of CTM development. Coupling with the ATM will start during phase three.